![]() Seattle likewise has right-handers George Kirby ( No. ![]() He's also recently taken on the look of a Game 1 starter, ripping off a 2.70 ERA in six September outings. What they need is top-of-the-rotation talent, but they have options.Ī former top prospect in his own right, Logan Gilbert has dazzled with his fastball velocity and walk rate, which rank in the 79th and 87th percentiles. Pitching-wise, the Mariners are set to return at least two solid starters in Chris Flexen and Marco Gonzales, and maybe a third if they exercise (and this is admittedly oversimplifying it) a four-year, $66 million option on All-Star Yusei Kikuchi. Factor in the underrated Ty France and the potential returns of sluggers Kyle Seager ($20 million club option) and Mitch Haniger (free agent after 2022), and the developing picture is one of a lineup whose best days lie ahead. Crawford and a young catching tandem in Luis Torrens and Cal Raleigh. In the meantime, the Mariners have a Gold Glover at shortstop in J.P. 903 OPS, 38 home runs and 41 stolen bases he's posted in three minor league seasons remain a tantalizing tease. 177/.260/.349 line in 90 games-is alarming, 22-year-old center fielder Jarred Kelenic still has a lot of time to live up to his recent billing as one of baseball's 10 best prospects. While his performance as a rookie-i.e., a. Likewise, it only includes 241 plate appearances for 24-year-old second baseman Abraham Toro, who came aboard via trade in July. This is true even though reigning AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis ( knee) and Gold Glove first baseman Evan White ( hip) have barely played because of injuries. And if anything, these things undersell the team's youth movement.Īmong AL clubs, the Mariners have given more plate appearances to 25-and-under hitters than every team except Cleveland. Heck, with baseball's oldest offense and its worst farm system, that team basically didn't have a future.īy contrast, the '21 Mariners have one of the league's youngest offenses and a farm system that MLB.com ranked No. Though the '18 Mariners were good in their own way, the future of that team never looked especially bright. Accordingly, they've produced a lot of those this season.īut if ever there was a case of "one of these things is not like the other," it's the 2018 Mariners vs. 362 wOBA) at the plate whenever they've needed a big hit. Looking strictly at the Mariners' offensive performance in high-leverage spots, it's as if they've had Starling Marte (who also has a. ![]() This can also be quantified with " clutch," which rates the Mariners as the best club there is on offense and the second-best there is on the mound based on how they've performed in high-leverage spots: This is to say Seattle is good when it has to be, and never more so than when the pressure is on. As in, they're 11-28 with a minus-135 run differential in games decided by five or more runs-and 78-42 with a plus-87 run differential otherwise. You could also argue that it's impossible to quantify how much "fun" a team has, but take a moment to consider how the Mariners are generally boring on bad days yet practically unbeatable on good days. Screenshot courtesy of Baseball Reference "But our fun differential was about plus-90. "Someone told me that our run differential was minus-nine on this trip," manager Scott Servais said in August, according to Corey Brock of The Athletic. The Mariners, however, couldn't care less about their run differential they much prefer the other kind. And even amid the team's strong second half, the offense is 12th among AL clubs in weighted on-base average, while the pitching staff ranks ninth in ERA and 10th in FIP. Their defense rates negatively in outs above average, defensive runs saved and ultimate zone rating. Thing is, the Mariners just aren't particularly good at fundamental aspects of the game. They could become only the 10th playoff team with a negative run differential. This is not a typo, and not to be confused with run differential, which is where the Mariners aren't even breaking even at minus-48. Understanding the 2021 Mariners requires understanding fun differential. And no matter what happens, 2021 is merely the opening salvo of the latest dynasty in the Pacific Northwest. What it misses, though, is the not-so-secret ingredient that's taken the Mariners this far. To the extent that the Mariners aren't really as good as their 89-70 record, this isn't an entirely unfair assessment. ![]() If other stars align just right during the season's final weekend, the organization could clinch its first playoff berth since its historic 116-win season in 2001.Īccording to FanGraphs, however, Seattle's chances of nabbing a wild-card slot are less than 30 percent. Just one more win will secure the Mariners' first 90-win campaign since 2003.
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